Of course, August often brings bad news for Russia - debt default in 1998, sinking of the Kursk submarine in 2000; terrorist attacks in 2004, and the war with Georgia in 2008. This year, Russia has seen both the highest sustained temperatures and the worse drought in more than a century.

Russia is the world's third largest wheat exporter and the fourth largest grain exporter overall.  In most years, the US, Canada, Australia, the EU-27, the former Soviet Union (including three major wheat exporters: Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan), and Argentina account for about 90% of world wheat exports.

So far, the USDA forecasts global wheat supply to be relatively stable, with a good crop in the US offsetting weakness elsewhere.  But as we've seen thoughout this crisis, it doesn't take a lot to spook the trading markets.

Roger Horn is a Senior Emerging Markets Credit Analyst and an expert in both country risk and corporate credit with an experience that spans 18 years of credit analysis across a wide range of fixed income sectors and alternative financing structures. He is currently the Head of Credit Research for a firm in New York City. All viewpoints expressed in this blog represent his own personal thoughts. Comments welcome: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

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