RT: What kind of anti-crisis measures were discussed at the Forum, and did you discuss consumption stimulation?

AD: “Consumption stimulation is one of the ideas being assessed by the government right now, and its being assessed from the point of view of overall budget constraint, given the amount of resources we have – what is the most efficient use of these resources – whether we need to reduce taxes or whether we need to stimulate consumption by direct expenditure, or provide additional social guarantees. The most likely outcome of this process is a compromise solution, where all kinds of methods and instruments will be used to some extent.

The government will continue to provide refinancing of mortgages, not only for people who are in a difficult situation right now and the decision was already taken, but also to provide for normal process of mortgage financing. The amount of resources is not clear at this point, but some volumes will be allocated for these purposes.”

RT: What is your forecast regarding GDP and inflation figures for 2009?

AD: “The current forecast for GDP is slightly below minus 2%, so we expect economic decline this year. This figure is in line with January estimates for GDP reduction of minus 2.4% adjusted for seasonality. And also this implies that investments will go down, and unemployment will go up. But we have resources in the budget that are sufficient to deal with employment issues, and provide people with temporary or permanent jobs in the most difficult regions and situations.

The current developments show that inflation will be, at least at the same level as last year, so slightly more than 13%. For the year as a whole we also expect that there will be downward pressures related to commodity prices, reduction of costs for construction will push inflation down. So overall we do not believe that inflation will jump, and the most likely outcome is that inflation will be slightly higher than last year.”

RT: Russia is facing a budget deficit this year – how is it likely to be covered?

AD: “The most likely outcome is that the deficit will be about 8% of GDP, or slightly higher than this figure. The major resource for financing of the budget deficit is the Reserve Fund that we have accumulated over the last few years, exactly for this particular purpose. We will avoid expensive borrowing, and the government will go to the market for new borrowing only if market conditions improve. Until that the reserve fund will be used to finance the budget deficit.”

Arkady Dvorkovich Reuters