> Ad spend is unlikely to contract this year, but double-digit growth appears unattainable, in our view, at least in 1H12, as advertisers - despite signing up for annual contracts - continue to sit on the fence with regard to planning advertising budgets given the prevailing uncertainty. We anticipate an 8-9% increase in ad spend, implying growth marginally below the projected increase in private consumption in nominal terms. We expect the status quo to remain for the TV advertising market, growth coming in at 5-6% this year, driven by an increase in prices of around 10% but negatively impacted by a decline in TV viewing figures.

> Looking beyond 2012, we think there is a high chance that double-digit growth will resume, as ad spend in Russia is still only around 1.00-1.15% of private consumption. This is well below pre-crisis 2008 levels and the figures seen in other developed countries.

> For CTC Media and Yandex, 2012 could be a turning point if the former manages to stem its audience share decline and the latter curtails the ebbing of its market share by search queries. Both companies acted to turn around the situation in 2011, and these measures should start bearing fruit this year. Hence we would see positive dynamics in audience share and market share by search queries as a trigger for the stocks, although the December 2011 numbers did not reveal any improvements.