The stakes are clear. The equation surrounding the analysis of the Greek election is very straightforward; if the new government does now commit to the terms of the bailout and to staying in the euro, then last week's global market relief rally will be greatly extended and we may see the hoped-for strong rally in all risk assets into end June. If, on the other hand, the new government wants to renegotiate, something that has been rejected by Germany, then last week's optimism will quickly fade. In football terms, this high-stakes game is deep into the added injury time. Either way, this is by no means the end of the matter. A further crisis is inevitable until major structural reforms are agreed to support the region's banks and economies. With luck, however, global markets may get a vacation from fear for the summer. Most investors will settle for a positive run through to end June.
Russia's new government holds its first showcase event. The domestic story is also becoming more interesting, after a long winter when the news flow was all about the protests. Last Tuesday's rally effectively brings an end to that phase, for now, while this week's St Petersburg Economic Forum will hopefully start to switch the focus onto the relatively positive domestic story and the reform initiatives.
Chris Weafer, Head of Strategy, Troika Dialogue