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Drifting, Waiting

Posted by Chris Weafer on Tuesday, 24 August 2010 10:57 | Published in Chris Weafer's Investor Notes
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By Chris Weafer

Equities are set for another weak opening as Asian equity markets and the price of oil trade lower on the back of fears of a slowing global economy. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index is off 0.4% in afternoon trade, led by a 1.0% drop in the Nikkei. The Shanghai Composite Index is bucking that trend with a 1.0% gain. As Japan’s export competitiveness suffers, it helps China’s.

The US dollar and yen are both trading better against other major currencies. The yen is at 84.99 against the dollar and the dollar is at $1.2632 against the euro. That is putting pressure on the developing markets currencies in the region. Gold is at $1,222.9 per ounce. The price of oil is also slightly down because of the combination of higher dollar and global growth concerns. Brent last traded at $73.39 p/bbl and WTI is at $72.84 p/bbl. But, while most equity markets drifted through yesterday’s session, and are expected to do the same in the morning session, there are more specific hard news items scheduled for today that are capable of pushing prices a little more decisively in either direction. Yesterday, there were a few corporate stories that encouraged investors but that was against a backdrop of nervousness about the strength of current economic activity. The evidence to justify or reduce those fears may come with the July existing home sales in the US, or the Richmond Manufacturing update or the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report. All of which have previously had a significant positive and negative impact on investor sentiment. In Russia, the 2nd Qtr earnings season is underway and, today, it will be the turn of food retailers Magnit and Dixy to report. We rate both as Buy. AvtoVAZ was the only feature on Moscow’s bourses. It was a real dull day on most international bourses yesterday and Moscow focused investors were in no mood to buck that trend. Most prices moved within tight spreads throughout the day so that the RTS ended with a gain of 6 basis points and MICEX added only 3 basis points by the end of its session. The indices respectively closed at 1,425.9 and 1,366.8. The only stock to show any real action was AvtoVAZ. Its Preference shares closed 10% higher and the commons added 3.1% by the close. Clearly some investor believes earnings and dividend growth are set for a big gain. The ruble closed flat against the basket while reflecting the change in the dollar-euro rate on international exchanges. Against the dollar, the ruble closed the MICEX session at 30.623, a loss of 6.4 basis points, and at 38.914 against the euro. That was a gain of 7.5 basis points. Vimpelcom lost again with merger speculation. The IOB Index of GDR prices was a little better than the domestic bourses with a closing gain of 32 basis points. The steel names drifted for most of the day and ended with a gain of 2.2% for Severstal and a loss of 0.1% for Evraz. PIK Group was the best performer with a gain of 3.5% to close at $3.55 while Polymetal was the worst with a loss of 2.4% at $12.0. In the US ADR market, Vimpelcom fell further as a reaction to media reports about the possible merger with an Egyptian telecoms company. It ended down 1.4%. MTS benefited from some switching and it closed 1.1% better. Mechel closed down 1.7% with the general avoidance of risk assets. Chris Weafer is the Chief Strategist for Uralsib group

Last modified on Tuesday, 30 November 1999 00:00
Chris Weafer

Chris Weafer

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