Business Watch
Chris Weafer
Clear and Present Danger
By Chris Weafer
Chief Strategist Uralsib
For a list of major events that may shape global market trends and stock price moves in Russia, see “Stocks to Watch” and “This Week: Global Macro indicators” sections later in this note. Events in the energy sector, both globally concerning the oil price and in Russia (Kovykta and AAR-BP dispute), are again expected to dominate market moves.
Russia enjoys 13th straight week of capital inflows
Fund Flows: EM Retreat Slows–Russia Preference Remains Strong
Mr. Putin Goes to Brussels
By Chris Weafer
Chief Strategist Uralsib
Prime Minister Putin starts a two-day formal visit to Brussels today. The main items on the schedule will be energy cooperation, a long-awaited revised Russia-EU Partnership agreement and WTO entry. In the “energy for trade” barter that has dominated talks between both sides over the past ten years, it is “advantage” Russia for now. At least that is how the Russian side will likely play it.
Disagreeable Level of Global Tension
By Chris Weafer
Chief Strategist Uralsib
As a new week starts, Asia’s stocks are drifting lower (MSCI Asia-Pacific is off 0.2%) while oil and other commodities are higher due to the uncertainty over how far the current tensions in the Middle East may extend and what may be the effect on the still fragile global recovery. As oil producing nations are now embroiled in the civil disturbances the real danger is of an oil price spike that could derail the economic recovery in the major oil consuming nations.
Fund Flows: Russia still the only positive in a sinking asset class
By Chris Weafer
Chief Strategist Uralsib Group
Continuing preference for Russia. For the fourth week in a row investors have transferred money from emerging market (EM) funds to developed market (DM) equity funds. But, while the trend in the overall EM asset class is negative, Russia funds have again, for a fifth straight week, attracted new money while the other major country funds have reported redemptions. Unfortunately, even as investors continue to show a preference for increased Russia exposure, the scale of redemptions in other EM funds means that fund managers still had to slightly cut Russia allocations last week.
The Cook, the Thief, His Wife, His Lover.
By Chris Weafer
Fund Flows: Smaller EM Outflow…Appetite for Russia is Undiminished
Nervously Waiting for Weekly Funds Flow Report
By Chris Weafer
Chief Strategist Uralsib Group
Danger of a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
The Big Issue
Equity markets should open better tomorrow morning as the crisis in Egypt appears to be easing and economic data in most countries confirms that the recovery is expanding. The short-term outlook for oil is less positive and that may hold back some flows into Russia and hit the oil and gas sector shares at the start of the week.