As long as uncertainty continues to reign, we see pressure for the market to trade sideways for the remainder of 2011. However, having broken past the 1,500 point resistance level, the UX Index may enjoy a Christmas rally, aided by cooling devaluation fears and positive news flow from Europe. Ukraine’s discounts to its emerging market and frontier market peers have now inflated to around the April 2009 highs. We do not expect a substantial rally, but a volatile and mostly sideways trend could have a steep enough slope to help the UX Index close the year with a 10_15% gain. Over this period, we favor stocks in the metals and mining, manufacturing, consumer, utilities and potentially telecom sectors as outperformers.
Yulia is a model. Her face shines down from advertising hoardings across Kiev and other Ukrainian cities. Yet at 25 years old Yulia is searching for her true love. Disappointed with Ukrainian men she has turned to online dating agency, Anastasia International, to help her find a foreign man to whom she is “ready to give my heart,” as she told me in a Kiev restaurant.
Yulia is originally from Odessa on the Crimean coast. Her friend Alla, whom she met in the Anastasia office, has lived in Kiev all of her 22 years and faces the same problem.
The Turkish brewer of Efes beer has agreed a merger with SAB Miller’s Russian and Ukrainian beer businesses being transferred to Anadolu Efes. The deal which is being billed as a strategic alliance for Turkey, Russia, the CIS, Central Asia and the Middle East will see the combined Russian business having a strong number 2 position in value share terms, with a highly attractive brand portfolio and is expected to yield significant cost synergies of at least US$120m per year, and provide additional revenue synergy opportunities. The number one brewer in Russia and Ukraine is Carlsberg’s Baltika.
A grain sector round table was convened in Kiev by the EBRD and the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food aimed at continuing efforts to improve the climate for investment in the Ukrainian grain sector through better cooperation between the private and public sectors.
The grain sector round table was entitled “Mechanisms for the effective interaction between government and private business in the grain market” is taking place in Kiev today. This event builds on the first roundtable organised by the Bank and the Ministry in January 2011, which allowed public and private sector representatives to meet and openly discuss sector issues for the first time. As a result of that unprecedented enterprise, key sector players signed the Initiative for Joint Action memorandum, which established core principles for a transparent grain market in the country.
By John Bonar
Saturday's talks between Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and Russia’s two leaders President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have failed to yield a much hoped-for agreement on the price Ukraine pays for gas and the Russian proposal that Ukraine joins the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The lack of substantive agreement is disappointing not only for Ukrainian tax payers and gas consumers but also for European customers of Gazprom who fear another escalating dispute leading to the third cut off of gas supplies in six years.
Ukraine may sign gas production contracts worth a total of $1 billion with international energy companies including ExxonMobil, Eni and Total this month, Kommersant Ukraina business daily said on Friday. ExxonMobil wants to produce shale gas, while Eni and Total are interested in deposits which are hard to explore, a Ukrainian Energy and Coal Production Ministry source told the paper. This month the Ukrainian authorities signed an $800 million contract with Royal Dutch Shell for geological exploration and production of shale gas in the east of the country.
By Konstantin Simonov exclusively for RIA Novosti On Saturday, September 24 President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will meet with President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych in Moscow to discuss a number of pressing issues, above all, Russian gas supplies and Ukraine’s membership in the Customs Union that unites Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Russian-Ukrainian gas relations have reached a boiling point. Throughout the entire summer, Ukraine has been openly blackmailing Moscow in all directions. Kiev threatened to sever the gas transit contract of January 19, 2009 in the hope that a potential disruption of the transit of gas to the European Union (EU) would compel Russia to provide Ukraine with the discount that they have long been waiting for.
President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych will make a working visit to Russia on September 24 at the invitation of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
The visit will focus on the current dispute over the price Ukraine pays Russia for gas imports after discounts against gas transit fees to Europe and for extended use of the Russian Black SDea fleet facilities at Sevastopol in the Crimea.
Wizz Air’s Kiev base now serves 12 destinations with addition this week of Barcelona (Girona) and Valencia.
When Wizz Air first entered the Ukrainian market in July 2008, it focused on domestic services, and operated with just one aircraft from a base at Kiev’s Borispol airport. International services began to London Luton in December 2008, followed in January 2009 by further services to Cologne/Bonn, Dortmund, Katowice and Oslo Torp.
The EBRD is continuing to bolster Ukraine’s strong position as a major producer, processor and exporter of agricultural commodities via its large-scale programme of investments with major players in the national food and farming sector. The latest transaction is a US$ 25 million loan to Globino Group – an important meat processing company in Ukraine. The loan will finance the modernisation of “Globinsky Meat Plant” and “Globinsky Pig Complex” as well as the construction of a biogas facility and a restructuring of Globino’s balance sheet.
