| 
Chris Weafer

Chris Weafer

07.12.2010 09:50

Russia's WTO Entry: Finishing Post In Sight

By Chris Weafer

The latest Russia-EU summit will take place today in Brussels. It is very likely that there will be a positive indication about Russia's entry into the WTO during 2011, if not a specific timetable. That will provide another positive driver for the improving investor sentiment towards Russia. Confirmation that Russia is finally at the last stages of entry to the WTO would be positive for the steel names, as it would remove some export barriers, and for the bank sector stocks.
06.12.2010 09:55

A Panglossian Response

By Chris Weafer

Friday’s US payroll report was worse than expected but, by the close of trade on Wall Street, investors preferred the positive interpretation that the Fed has no choice but to continue with the planned additional QE programme. Markets are likely to consolidate around Friday’s close until the next set of economic indicators becomes available.
01.12.2010 23:57

Russia in 2011: Slipstreaming Global Market Turbulence

Domestic themes in strong position to perform despite continuing global macro uncertainty

By Chris Weafer
The global macro situation remains very uncertain, and is likely to remain so through most of 2011. This should sustain the generally volatile conditions for all global markets, although we expect the upward trend to remain. Russia’s fiscal position is now a lot stronger, and growth of 4.6% next year looks very achievable. The government should continue to prioritize domestic initiatives in the election year, creating a better performance backdrop for domestic themes and defensive stocks in 2011.
29.11.2010 10:03

Still A Lot of Blarney Ruble

By Chris Weafer
Asia’s markets have reacted with relief but little enthusiasm to the news of the Irish bailout agreement. The fear is that this may be just a test run before the more substantive issues of Portuguese and Spanish debt talks have to begin. That concern will hang over markets for months. There is some relief that there have been no further incidents in Korea. But again, that is tempered with the fact that both sides continue to refuse to take part in talks and the situation remains volatile. Moscow’s bourses and those in Europe will likely react with a similar mix of relief and continued caution at the opening today.
29.11.2010 09:56

World Cup 2018: A Potential Catalyst for Modernization

By Chris Weafer
Russia is the marginal favourite. A great deal of attention will be focused on FIFA’s decision as to which country will host the 2018 World Cup. That decision will be announced in Zurich on Thursday. Russia is now considered the favourite, albeit slight.. Still, the vote will be tight. Winning the right to stage the World Cup would provide a major boost to both the Russian economy and also would provide a huge incentive for the government to push ahead with plans to rebuild the country’s infrastructure. The total cost to South Africa, the most recent host, is estimated to have been $ 4bln but franchise fees, etc can be a multiple of that if handled correctly.
26.11.2010 10:03

Russian Fund Flows: Surprisingly Positive

By Chris Weafer

Investors not spooked by Ireland or China. The weekly fund flows report from EPFR Global showed surprisingly strong inflows in the week to Wednesday. In total, emerging market funds took in $2,368 mln, which was also much better than the previous week and came against a backdrop of very week international markets. Fund investors, unlike many direct market participants, view such events as the Irish debt crisis and China tightening as both temporary and a buying opportunity. The EM Balanced fund category again took in the bulk of the new money, as investors still prefer not to make specific regional or country choices but to spread risk and exposure. That fund category took in $1,511 mln of the new money. In total, according to EPFR reports, investors have now invested close to $80 bln into emerging market funds in 2010 to date. That compares with last year’s record inflow of $83 bln. This year will set another new record for this asset class.
Emerging Europe is back in favour. The other surprise was the $137 mln invested into Emerging Europe funds. With the main issue in global markets the eurozone debt crisis, it had been expected that investors would be wary of contagion into this region. Again, they see this as either all priced into the low regional valuations or, as a temporary event. The fact that Emerging Europe funds have started to attract net new money flows – almost $250 mln over the past 6 weeks – is positive for Russia as Russian exposure accounts for almost 50% of the weighting in these funds. Over the first nine months of this year, investors withdrew $700 mln from these funds and that affected Russia more than other regional markets.
Turkey-Russia switch is now over. Russia’s share of last week’s $137 mln ($68 mln) more than compensates for the net $25 mln withdrawn directly from Russia funds last week. That withdrawal was, however, better than the net redemption of $33 mln from Brazil funds, the $102 mln taken from India funds and the $95 mln redeemed from Turkey funds. The Russia to Turkey switch that lasted from early July to late October is now well and truly over. China funds reported inflows of $517 mln last week, the eleventh straight week of positive flows. Retail fund investors share none of the concerns about a slowdown in China that have affected the Russian and other global markets in recent weeks.
Chris Weafer is the Chief Strategist for Uralsib Group

 

22.11.2010 08:23

Irish Debt Relief

By Chris Weafer

Equities and the ruble look set for a more confident, albeit still cautious, opening this morning after Asian investors reacted positively to the Irish bailout agreement. China’s CSI 300 is up 0.6% and India’s Sensex indices are up between 0.6% and 0.9% in early afternoon trade.

19.11.2010 10:02

Resurrection Delayed

“Come forth Lazarus! But he came fifth and lost”

James Joyce, Ulysses

The big picture from the weekly fund flow report (see below) is that investors remain bullish towards emerging markets, especially towards Asia. The love affair with LatAm appears to be cooling and money is starting to shift from that region to Asia and to EMEA, which has been out of favour for the past eighteen months. Russia is again attracting most new money in the EMEA region albeit recently that has come via ETFs which provides less reliable long-term market support.
17.11.2010 12:42

A Gold Lining in These Storm Clouds?

I am tomorrow, or some future day, what I establish today. I am today what I established yesterday or some previous day."

James Joyce
By Chris Weafer
US markets closed yesterday at the low of the day and, this morning, China’s premier confirmed that new measures are being prepared to curb inflation. That, plus the ongoing eurozone debt crisis, will sustain the perfect storm that is battering all markets for a while longer. Domestic factors matter little.
16.11.2010 07:19

Irish Risk Migration

By Chris Weafer
Global markets are set for another rough session today while waiting to see if Ireland’s debt crisis can be resolved before contagion starts to more seriously undermine confidence in the euro and in Eurozone economies (see below). Asia’s markets and commodities held up well for the morning session but have fell sharply in early afternoon trade. The CSI Composite in China is now off almost 4.0% and other regional markets are falling. US Futures are indicating another weak opening on Wall Street.